Thursday, July 1, 2010

2011 Mock #2

I took a quick break from my positional rankings/ thoughts, to write up a new mock. My last one had been completed a while back, so it was time for a new one. As well, the good people at rookiedraft.com wanted a new one to feature on their site!

Here she is:

1) Buffalo- Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas
Buffalo has no QB, one of the worst OLines (if not the worst) in the league, and a defense in transition. They’re as bad as a team can get. They need to start from the ground up. I was torn between Locker and Mallet, but in the end I have a feeling Mallet’s stock is going to soar. That combined with his arm being better suited for the tough New York climate gave him the nod.

2) St. Louis- AJ Green, WR, Georgia
Sam Bradford needs some weapons to have a chance. Green is the best deep threat to come out in a while.

3) Cleveland- Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
I’m not sure if Quinn is the best fit for the 34 defense, but some people do. And there’s no guarantee that the Browns will stick with that defense if they cut ties with Eric Mangini and company.

4) Jacksonville- Jake Locker, QB, Washington
David Garrard is mediocre at best. Locker offers a new dynamic to that offense, and brings a face to a struggling franchise.

5) Denver- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Josh McDaniels has no problem cutting ties with veterans. That’s why many are predicting Champ Bailey to move on to a new team sooner or later. Alphonso Smith is not the answer at the #1 corner position, in fact he projects as a nickel back, and not much more. Peterson is the best pure corner to come out in years.

6) Kansas City- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
If the Chiefs are picking this high again, then it’ll be official: The Matt Cassell experiment
was a flop. If Luck comes out, he could compete with the other top QB’s to be the first overall pick, so Luck is good value here.

7) Chicago- Jonathon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
The Bears need help in a lot of areas, but making sure Jay Cutler succeeds is priority #1. Baldwin is an underrated talent, and could be the #1 or #2 wide out in this class thanks to Julio Jones’ inconsistencies and Michael Floyd’s nagging injuries.

8) Detroit- Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
It’s finally time to give the Lions a blind side protector. There’s no clear cut #1 OT this draft, but if one is going to emerge, I’d bet on Castonzo.

9) Seattle- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Mark Ingram is a complete, workhorse type of back. If Charlie Whitehurst is going to be successful then the Seahawks need to get a running game going. Ingram would be a good step in that direction

10) Arizona- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Across from DRC, the Cards have nothing at corner. In an ever growing pass first league, corner depth is a must. Amukamara is a top 10 talent in some minds, so this is a perfect fit for need and value.

11) Tampa Bay- Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh
Defensive line is a major place of concern for the Bucs. They double dipped at DT last year in rounds 1 and 2. Now its time to go DE.

12) Philadelphia- Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Almost everyone though the Eagles were going to go secondary in round 1 this past year. They didn’t. Their weak secondary could be their Achilles heel this year, so I can’t see them passing on a corner again.

13) New York Giants- Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
A talented man in the middle could do wonders for this Giants defense. Hightower is hard to place at this point, but with a good season and his expected good workouts, he could end up being the #1 LB in 2011.

14) Washington- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly have disappointed so far, so it’s time to bring in reinforcements at wideout. Jones is talented, athletic, and is a big time name from a big time program. Right up the Redskins ally.

15) Tennessee- Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
The Titans have needs in the secondary, but the value isn’t quite there, so I went with the best LB available in Travis Lewis. He would instantly bolster a fairly weak Titans linebacking corps.

16) New England (from Oakland)- Cameron Heyward, DE, OSU
I think Oakland is in for a decent year, so the Pat’s pick may be lower than expected. Fortunately for them in this draft, they get a top 10 talent in Cameron Heyward. Needs didn’t meet for the teams ahead of New England to take the top 34 DE in the class, but the Pats would run to the podium to scoop him up.

17) Cincinnati- Marcel Dareus, DE, Alabama
The Bengals don’t have too many needs, so I went with the best player available inMarcel Dareus here. He could play all over the DLine, and he offers big time athleticism that Cincy loves.

18) Pittsburgh- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
The Steelers need someone to step up beside Mike Wallace if their passing game will be as effective as it was during the Santonio Holmes era. Floyd is a better prospect then Holmes was, and he doesn’t come with the personal headaches.

19) Houston- Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska
Amobi Okoye has been a disappointment so far in his career, so if he has another bad season, it may be time to bring in a new DT. Crick is a prototypical UT, and would fit in nice on the Texans DLine.

20) Carolina- Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
A ballhawking free safety beside Charles Godfrey could make this Panthers secondary a lot better. Moore fits the bill. He’s my clear cut #1 safety this year.

21) San Francisco- Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Dowling is an underrated prospect. If he works out well and runs faster than expected, you’ll likely see his stock soar. The secondary is the weakest part of the 49ers roster right now.

22) Miami- Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams may both be sent packing after the year so new blood at RB is a must. Ryan Williams is a talented young back who projects as an every down type of player.

23) Atlanta- Mike Pouncey, C/OG, Florida
The interior line of the Falcons isn’t that good, and they’re old to begin with. Pouncey isn’t quite as good a prospect as his brother was yet, but he’s close. He’d instantly bolster the Falcons line.

24) Indianapolis- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
It was a major shocker the Colts ignored the OLine for the most part this past draft. With Peyton Manning getting older, they won’t be able to ignore that for much longer.

25) New York Jets- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
If the Jets have one area of weakness, it’s on the DLine, and specifically at DE. Clayborn is a top 10 talent in some minds, but falls due to team needs and some character issues. He’s well worth the risk at this point.

26) New Orleans- Jack Crawford, DE, PSU
Crawford would play OLB in a 34 scheme, but undersized DE’s for 43 teams are in right now (Aaron Maybin, Jerry Hughes for example). Crawford could start as a situational passrusher behind Alex Brown and eventually develop into a starter. For a team loaded with talent like the Saints, they can afford to play around a bit with their pick like this.

27) New England- Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU
Sebastian Vollmer has one tackle spot of the future reserved, but the other is still up for grabs. Barksdale is big tackle who probably projects better to the right side. This could allow the Pats to finally ditch Nick Kaczur.

28) Dallas- Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)
Marcus Spears is mediocre and may not be around much longer. Allen Bailey is a physical freak who actually has production to back it up. Unfortunately for him, this looks to be a pretty loaded 34 DE class, so he falls, but at this point in the draft he’s a very good investment.

29) Minnesota- Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Passing on Jimmy Clausen was a beyond stupid move by the Vikings, but lucky for them in this scenario, they get a similar QB prospect in Christian Ponder. Ponder’s underrated by most and could go higher then this depending on what QB’s come out and how good of a season he has.

30) San Diego- Jerrell Powe, NT, Ole Miss
Is Cam Thomas the answer? Maybe.. but he fell multiple rounds in the draft for a reason. If Jerrell Powe is available and Cam Thomas didn’t show much during the season, the Chargers may have to pull the trigger.

31) Baltimore- Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)
Harris is a borderline first round talent, but he fills the teams biggest need by far. WR depth is another concern, but the value doesn’t line up, so Harris makes sense here.

32) Green Bay- Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
Brad Jones is the starter opposite Clay Matthews currently, and while he’s a decent player, the Packers defense could really be taken up a notch with another talented passrusher like Von Miller who fits the system perfectly.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Initial Rankings Part 2

This years Wide Receiver class has a chance to be really special. In 2 of the last 3 years drafts, there hasn't been a WR taken in the top 20. That will change in 2011. There are 4 potential superstars at WR, all with different attributes and a different style. It's going to be really exciting to follow this class. Despite this, there is one small problem... none of the elite talents are seniors. If these guys don't declare, then the class will be awful, but most people (including me) think that most of the underclassmen are coming out in 2011.

Senior WR's
1) Terrance Toliver, LSU
2) Greg Little, North Carolina
3) Austin Pettis, Boise State
4) Armon Binns, Cincinnati
5) Ryan Whalen, Stanford

Notable Underclassmen
1) AJ Green, Georgia
2) Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
3) Jonathon Baldwin, Pittsburgh
4) Julio Jones, Alabama

While none of the seniors have a realistic shot at round 1, the 4 underclassmen I mentioned all have a ceiling in the top 10. Green is a big and athletic playmaker. He's one of the best deep threats in recent memory. His size/speed ratio, and dynamic playmaking ability make him the best of the best in this potentially loaded class.
Floyd, is another big time threat. In just 7 games last year, Floyd managed to pick up 9 TD's and nearly 800 yards... that's very impressive. Combine that with his 6'3 220 lb frame, sure hands, superb route running, and possible 4.4 speed, and you have a top 10 talent. There is an issue here though... injuries. Floyd is exceptional when healthy, but he's proven to be extremely fragile. If he stays healthy this season and tests out medically, he could be one of the top talents available. Another injury though could derail his status as elite talent.
Baldwin is the least publicized of the 'big 4'. He's even bigger then Michael Floyd, and just as athletic. He has elite leaping ability, sure hands, and underrated route running. Baldwin could be a top 10 pick this April.
Julio Jones is likely the most talked about of the 4, but in my opinion, he's the worst of the bunch. He's a first round talent no doubt, but he hasn't performed up to his abilities so far in his career. A true athletic freak, Jones stands at 6'4 215 lbs, runs a 4.4, and is set to blow up the vertical (among other drills) at the combine. A player this talented, playing on a loaded team that often demands 8 men in the box, Jones should have a field day against opponent's secondaries. But he doesn't usually. His stats are pedestrian at best, party due to his habit of dropping the ball way too much. His motivation and focus have come into question because of his drops, and that combined with sub-par route running make him the 4th best of the group. If he plays up to his abilities this year though, Jones could realistically leap all the other receivers and become the best of the best.

Now onto the Tight End's. This position doesn't offer the same excitement as the receivers but there are some intriguing names to watch.
Senior TE's
1) Weslye Saunders, South Carolina
2) Charlie Gantt, MSU
3) Luke Stocker, Tennessee
4) Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin
5) Schuylar Oordt, Northern Iowa

Notable Underclassmen
1) Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame

Rudolph could be a first rounder if he declares. He's big, fast, experienced, and serviceable in both the passing game and in terms of blocking. He's the prototypical tight end. He has some nagging injuries, and it'll be interesting to see if he's as productive with Dayne Crist under center, but right now he's the cream of the crop. Another interesting guy to watch is Saunders out of South Carolina. He could be the most gifted tight end athletically in 2011, but he has character concerns. He's been suspended in the past and reports of his immaturity and nonchalant attitude have surfaced repeatedly. If he can turn himself around, he could be a force in the NFL. Very similar to Jermichael Finley, Saunders is big, fast, and a threat in the middle of the field. He's a boom or bust player for sure, but in my opinion he's worth the risk anywhere past round 1. Keep your eye on Oordt from Northern Iowa this year too. Admittedly, I don't get to see much Northern Iowa football but, Oordt has an intriguing blend of triangle numbers. He's 6'6, 250, and runs a reported 4.6. He's been fairly productive in his career so far, so he's an intriguing name to watch.

Next up the OLinemen.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Initial Rankings

It's still really, really, really early in the process, so I've decided to (for the time being) leave out underclassmen in my initial rankings. At the end of each rankings, or big board, I will note the underclassmen who if come out, would be ranked among the top of each group.
Let's start with the top QB's and RB's.

Senior QB's
1) Jake Locker, Washington
2) Christian Ponder, FSU
3) Pat Devlin, Delaware
4) Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
5) Ricky Stanzi, Iowa

Notable Underclassmen
1) Ryan Mallet, Arkansas
2) Andrew Luck, Stanford

You probable already know the basics behind Locker, Mallet, Luck, and Ponder. You probably do not know much about the Delaware product, Pat Devlin.
Devlin is an extremely intriguing prospect. He's big, strong, and has a cannon arm. Hmmm, a huge, rocket-armed, Delaware prospect... sound familiar? (Joe Flacco in case you're new to the draftnik scene).
Well, Devlin is a very hard prospect to get a read on. Why? 1- He plays at Delaware. It's near impossible to see this guy play a lot, and 2- One of the main sources of video on this guy is highlight videos. What's wrong with that? Well highlight videos tend to showcase the goods, and only the good parts of a players game. It isn't a very accurate way of scouting. Therefore many may believe he's better then he is.
Despite this, Devlin is a big time prospect. He has great accuracy, surprising movement, good ball placement, and we've already touched on his size and arm. He has good stats, but to be honest, for playing at Delaware they could be better. He has an upside of a first rounder, or he could slide all the way to the later rounds. This season is make or break for him.
Though I warned about the problems with highlight videos, I felt I should post one anyway, since most have never seen him play.

Pat Devlin Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4SBu8S3IFI

Senior RB's
1) DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
2) Evan Royster, PSU
3) Noel Devine, West Virginia
4) Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech
5) Daniel Thomas, Kansas State

Notable Underclassmen
1) Mark Ingram, Alabama
2) Ryan Williams, Virgina Tech

This is a pretty bad senior group at first glance. It's unlikely that any of these guys make it into the first round. However, when looked at again, you'll see some intriguing prospects. Murray is a dynamic threat. He's fast, he has decent size, he's elusive, and he's a good pass catcher. As a pure runner, he doesn't offer that much, but he could be an intriguing second round option. Noel Devine is also a very interesting guy to keep an eye on. He's tiny, but he's very dynamic with the ball. As we saw with Dexter McCluster last year, even an undersized weapon can make it into the high second round. Devine could do the same in 2011 with a good season under his belt.
The underclassmen though will make or break this class. Ingram is a legit top 15 talent. A natural runner, this workhorse has prototype size, speed and style. He doesn't go down easy, his legs are always pumping, he hits the hole hard, and he's fantastic in open space. He projects to be an everydown guy in the NFL. Ryan Williams is only a redshirt sophomore, but keep your eye out for him. He's a likely first rounder is he comes out early.

Next up, WR's and TE's.

Friday, June 25, 2010

2011 Mock #1

1) Buffalo- Jake Locker, QB, Washington
2) St. Louis- AJ Green, WR, Georgia
3) Jacksonville- Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas
4) Cleveland- Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
5) Denver- Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
6) Cincinnati- Marcel Dareus, DE, Alabama
7) Philadelphia- Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
8) Chicago- Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
9) Kansas City- Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
10) Detroit- Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
11) Seattle- Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
12) Arizona- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
13) Tampa Bay- Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh
14) New York Giants- Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
15) Washington- Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
16) Tennessee- Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma
17) Pittsburgh- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
18) Houston- Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska
19) New England (from Oakland)- Cameron Heyward, DE, OSU
20) Carolina- Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
21) San Francisco- DeAndre McDaniel, S, Clemson
22) Miami- Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
23) Atlanta- Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
24) Indianapolis- Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
25) New York Jets- Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)
26) New Orleans- Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
27) New England- Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU
28) Dallas- Marvin Austin, DE/DT, North Carolina
29) Minnesota- Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
30) San Diego- Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
31) Baltimore- Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
32) Green Bay- Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

2011, here we come!

Alright, after a brief hiatus to digest the draft and finish up my exams and schooling, Im ready to go for another year of draft chat.

2011 is a very intriguing class. While this year looks to be a tad weak on the OLine, at running back, and in the linebacking core it also happens to be loaded with QB, WR, and DL talent.
We have many story lines to look forward to.

There's already a race developing for the top QB of the draft. The highly touted Jake Locker has the coaching, the experience, the speed, and the athleticism. Ryan Mallet has the JaMarcus Russell arm without the JaMarcus Russell lethargy and Andrew Luck has the upside and intangibles. Oh, and Christian Ponder is in the discussion as well. The underrated signal caller from Florida State compares to Jimmy Clausen (who I thought was the best QB of 2010) and could sneak up draft boards with another fantastic season.

Then there's the WR discussion. After some relatively weak wide out classes, 2011 promises to be star studded. 4 receivers are legitimate top 15 talents. AJ Green, Michael Floyd, Jonathon Baldwin, and Julio Jones could all be top 10 picks any given year. It'll be an interesting race to see who steps up and becomes the cream of the crop.

We also have the comeback of Mark Herzlich. Herzlich, a potential first rounder in 2010, had to cancel his season after being diagnoses with Ewing's sarcoma. This rare form of cancer could be life threatening, but Herzlich won his battle with the disease, is cancer free, and ready to play football this year. Everyone will be cheering for him to regain top form, and become the top pick he was once projected to be.

There's more interesting plots to follow on the defensive side. If Patrick Peterson improves on his sophomore season and works out like everyone expects, he could be the top corner to come out in the past decade or so. Can Jared Crick, the productive DT from Nebraska, step out of Ndamukong Suh's shadow and become a top pick in his own right? Is Robert Quinn the best DE to come out since Mario Williams?

So, all in all, there's lots of intrigue this year. I'll be posting my first mock draft of the year momentarily, and in the next day or so the first big board will debut. Enjoy!

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Rams to take Bradford then Swap his Rights?

I've got a gut feeling that the reason the Rams haven't even attempted to negotiate with Bradford, when 3 of the past 4 #1 picks got a deal done, and the one who didn't held out through the start of the season, is because either A) The Rams don't like Bradford or more likely B) Bradford doesn't like the Rams.
Why else would there still be rumours circulating about the Redskins and Browns taking Clausen, when reports show these teams don't particularly like him?
Because I think that the most likely scenario is that either the Skins or Browns are going to draft Clausen, and we'll see a swap of players ala the 2004 NFL Draft with Rivers/Manning.

You heard it here first!

2010 Final Mock Draft Round 1.

1) St. Louis- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
2) Detroit- Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
3) Tampa Bay- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
4) Washington- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
5) Kansas City- Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
6) Seattle- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
7) Cleveland- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
8) Oakland- Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
9) Buffalo- Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
10) Jacksonville- CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
11) Denver (from Chicago)- Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
12) Miami- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
13) San Francisco- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
14) Seattle- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
15) New York Giants- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
16) Tennessee- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF
17) San Francisco (from Carolina)- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
18) Pittsburgh- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
19) Atlanta- Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
20) Houston- Earl Thomas, DB, Texas
21) Cincinnati- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
22) New England- Jared Odrick, DE/DT, PSU
23) Green Bay- Charles Brown, OT, USC
24) Philadelphia- Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
25) Baltimore- Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
26) Arizona- Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
27) Dallas- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
28) San Diego- Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State
29) New York Jets- Linval Joseph, DE/DT, East Carolina
30) Minnesota- Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
31) Indianapolis- Rodger Saffold, OT, Indiana
32) New Orleans- Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri