Finally, I've made it to the defensive side of the ball!
The first position I want to take a look at on defense is Defensive End.
There's a saying in football that goes 'In order to win in the NFL you need to do 3 things. 1- Get a Quarterback. 2- Protect your Quarterback. 3- Get to the other teams Quarterback'. Step 3 is often where the Defensive Ends come in. Clearly, these players are extremely important to an NFL team. Pass rushers off the edge are some of the most valuable players in football...it's for that reason that back in 2006 Houston chose Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Simply put, Defensive End's are much more important than running backs and many other positions. Pass rushers are always in high demand.
It should be noted that a lot of these guys I'm going to be discussing are Ends in a 43 scheme but many will project to Outside Linebacker in a 34 scheme. So, while you may see some people mocking Jason Pierre-Paul to Miami as a Linebacker for example, he will still be covered in the Defensive End rankings since that is where he profiles in a traditional 43 scheme. Make sense? Good! Okay lets get into it.
The first end I want to take a look at is Brandon Graham. Graham is an absolute animal on tape. He has a fantastic motor and never takes any plays off. He is good one on one with a blocker, he's exceptionally strong and powerful, and his technique is nearly flawless. He is proven to be very productive as a pass rusher (notching nearly 30 sacks in his final 3 years) and he is very stout against the run. He can easily shed blocks and his wrap up tackling is very impressive. He would be a great fit in a 43 or 34 scheme at the next level. By the way Im gushing over the guy, you'd think hes destined to be a top 5 pick...but he's not. Why? He has some physical short comings. Hes not the best athlete, he is rather short for a DE (6'1), and his frame is pretty much maxed out. In other words, he doesn't have top 5 athleticism, but he sure plays like a top 5 player. I think he's a borderline top 10 talent in the draft and he should be an exceptional player from day 1 in the NFL. We may see him slide on draft day because of his measurables (or lack there of)but he'll make an immediate impact.
Another interesting prospect this year is Jason Pierre-Paul or to make life simpler for us all, 'JPP'. JPP is the anti Brandon Graham. A JUCO transfer from South Florida, JPP has only started about half of a full season yet he's still destined to be a 1st round pick. This is almost purely based on his athleticism. One of the freakiest guys in this years draft, JPP was blessed with a 6'5 270 frame with room to add even more bulk. He also runs in the high 4.6's which is remarkable for a man of his size. He has the prototypical long arms and the ideal burst to be an NFL pass rusher. His tape (though limited) shows he has a good motor and he did rack up nearly a sack per start. His issue is his experience...how willing are you to gamble on a guy with half a year of college experience but with all world potential? Note that he hasn't proven to be reliable against the run, he has some intelligence questions, and he could have more raw strength... JPP is a big time gamble, but if he is developed correctly he could be a star.
From one boom or bust prospect to another, I now want to shift my attention to Everson Griffen from USC. Griffen is another freaky athlete with the size and the speed to be an NFL star, but his one major question mark is his motor. He runs hot and cold too often to get a good read on him. For example some games he absolutely dominated, such as the Notre Dame game in 2009. He abused the Irish Offensive Line all game and collected 2 sacks and a number of other QB hurries and pressures. Despite this show of talent, sometimes Griffen wouldn't deliver...in fact in 2008 he even lost his starting job! I'd be willing to bet on Griffen in the later stages of round 1, but he is a gamble. When he turns it on, he turns it on big time. But you have to take into account that at times his potential doesn't show up. It'll be up to the team who drafts him to maximize his skills and get him to produce like he should.
The final DE I want to look at is Jason Worilds out of Virginia Tech. He doesn't get much publicity in the draftnik community but he should. He is a perfect fit at OLB for a 34 team, has a fantastic motor, excellent speed, and is deadly in space. He didn't have the best senior season but it wasn't bad by any means...plus his junior season was fantastic. One also has to check out his pro day numbers..they're truely eye opening...he ran a 4.47 at 255 lbs! Are you kidding me? Those numbers may be deflated from a generous track at Virginia Tech, but there's no way you can discredit numbers like that. Worilds has the ability to be an absolute force in the NFL. His speed and burst, with his open field instincts could make for a star at OLB in a 34 scheme. Look for him to be taken in round 2 or 3 in the draft. He could be a steal at that point.
Here are the DE rankings...DT's are next!
1) Brandon Graham, Michigan (Round 1)
2) Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech (Round 1)
3) Jason Pierre-Paul, USF (Round 1)
4) Everson Griffen, USC (Round 1)
5) Carlos Dunlap, Florida (Round 1-2)
6) Jerry Hughes, TCU (Round 1-2)
7) Jason Worilds, Virginia Tech (Round 2-3)
8) Corey Wooton, Northwestern (Round 2-3)
9) Koa Misi, Utah (Round 2-3)
10) Ricky Sapp, Clemson (Round 2-3)
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
Arkansas: 2007 Draft Nightmare
Back in 2007 Arkansas was surprisingly giving us 3 potential first round picks...all at premium positions. Jamaal Anderson ended up being a top 10 pick at DE to Atlanta....Chris Houston, the highly athletic corner slid into the early second, again to Atlanta. And Tony Ugoh went early round 2 to the Colts...but for a steep price. They traded their 2008 first round pick for him.
Well where are these guys now? Anderson is a huge bust. Through his first two years he totaled 3 sacks...thats it. He was so bad as a pass rusher, Atlanta tried him out at DT in 2009. He still didn't make much of an impact.
Chris Houston? Bust again. After being buried on the Falcons depth chart (who aren't exactly deep at corner), Houston was traded to the Lions for a 6th round pick this year and a conditional 7th in 2011....yikes. Houston had the potential and the athleticism, but its safe to say he busted.
Finally we have Tony Ugoh. He was supposed to be Peyton Mannings blind side protector but instead he rides the bench...and its not exactly like the Colts are deep at tackle. Charlie Johnson, a natural guard, starts in his place. And Johnson isn't very good... most people have the Colts looking to address tackle once again this year.
What does this mean? That Arkansas is a bad school in developing NFL talent? That their players are over-rated? No... but you can't deny that its pretty interesting to note that 3 of the biggest busts in 2007 all came from one school
Well where are these guys now? Anderson is a huge bust. Through his first two years he totaled 3 sacks...thats it. He was so bad as a pass rusher, Atlanta tried him out at DT in 2009. He still didn't make much of an impact.
Chris Houston? Bust again. After being buried on the Falcons depth chart (who aren't exactly deep at corner), Houston was traded to the Lions for a 6th round pick this year and a conditional 7th in 2011....yikes. Houston had the potential and the athleticism, but its safe to say he busted.
Finally we have Tony Ugoh. He was supposed to be Peyton Mannings blind side protector but instead he rides the bench...and its not exactly like the Colts are deep at tackle. Charlie Johnson, a natural guard, starts in his place. And Johnson isn't very good... most people have the Colts looking to address tackle once again this year.
What does this mean? That Arkansas is a bad school in developing NFL talent? That their players are over-rated? No... but you can't deny that its pretty interesting to note that 3 of the biggest busts in 2007 all came from one school
2010 Interior Offensive Linemen
One of the most overlooked groups of prospects every year is the interior linemen. This can be attributed to the fact that linemen rarely get any publicity and most years there are not many first round quality players at these positions. This year is the exception. There are two sure fire first round picks in Mike Iupati and Maurkice Pouncey. The former is a standout from Idaho. A massive, road grader, he is destined for guard at the next level. He has a huge build with elite strength...combine that with a true 'mean streak' and good enough agility and movement, and you have yourself a first round guard prospect. He doesn't have the feet or balance to be a tackle at the next level and he did only play at Idaho, so his level of experience is in question. Despite this, he should find a home in the NFL as a fixture at left or right guard for someone for the next decade.
While Iupati is the rare first round guard, he isn't the best interior lineman in this draft. That title goes to Maurkice Pouncey out of Florida. Pouncey, a better prospect than Alex Mack was last year (drafted 21st overall), is as good as center prospects get. He is an elite run blocker in every sense.... powerful off the snap, extremely physical, gets to the second level quickly and effectively, very good on plays such as stretches, pulls, counters. He also is a proven pass blocker. He has good footwork, good hand placement, and moves exceptionally quickly for a man of his size. Coming out of Florida, he has a ton of experience playing talented opponents, and he is very battle tested and durable, as seen through his 39 career starts.
Pouncey, who is 6'5 305, has a great frame for a center and should be an immediate starter for whoever drafts him. He should be a top 20 pick, with his ceiling being #11 to Denver, which is extremely high for an interior lineman.
Another guy to keep your eye out for is Roger Saffold out of Indiana. A guard/possible tackle, Saffold had an amazing off season. He dominated the senior bowl before some solid work outs at the combine. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Saffold taken in early round 2 with the possibility of a team moving him out to tackle.
Here are my rankings:
1) Maurkice Pouncey, C Florida (Round 1)
2) Mike Iupati, OG Idaho (Round 1)
3) Roger Saffold, OG Indiana (Round 2)
4) JD Walton, C Baylor (Round 2-3)
5) Matt Tennant, C Boston College (Round 3)
6) Zane Beadles, OG Utah (Round 3)
7) Jon Asamoah, OG Illinois (Round 3)
8) John Jerry, OG Ole Miss (Round 3-4)
9) Mike Johnson, OG Alabama (Round 4)
10) Eric Olsen, C Notre Dame (Round 5)
While Iupati is the rare first round guard, he isn't the best interior lineman in this draft. That title goes to Maurkice Pouncey out of Florida. Pouncey, a better prospect than Alex Mack was last year (drafted 21st overall), is as good as center prospects get. He is an elite run blocker in every sense.... powerful off the snap, extremely physical, gets to the second level quickly and effectively, very good on plays such as stretches, pulls, counters. He also is a proven pass blocker. He has good footwork, good hand placement, and moves exceptionally quickly for a man of his size. Coming out of Florida, he has a ton of experience playing talented opponents, and he is very battle tested and durable, as seen through his 39 career starts.
Pouncey, who is 6'5 305, has a great frame for a center and should be an immediate starter for whoever drafts him. He should be a top 20 pick, with his ceiling being #11 to Denver, which is extremely high for an interior lineman.
Another guy to keep your eye out for is Roger Saffold out of Indiana. A guard/possible tackle, Saffold had an amazing off season. He dominated the senior bowl before some solid work outs at the combine. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Saffold taken in early round 2 with the possibility of a team moving him out to tackle.
Here are my rankings:
1) Maurkice Pouncey, C Florida (Round 1)
2) Mike Iupati, OG Idaho (Round 1)
3) Roger Saffold, OG Indiana (Round 2)
4) JD Walton, C Baylor (Round 2-3)
5) Matt Tennant, C Boston College (Round 3)
6) Zane Beadles, OG Utah (Round 3)
7) Jon Asamoah, OG Illinois (Round 3)
8) John Jerry, OG Ole Miss (Round 3-4)
9) Mike Johnson, OG Alabama (Round 4)
10) Eric Olsen, C Notre Dame (Round 5)
Saturday, March 27, 2010
2010 Offensive Tackles
Outside of Quarterbacks, Left Tackles are arguably the most important players on an NFL team. This was common thought even before rules slowly developed to favour the passing game this decade. That is why OT's are always in such high demand. This class features 6 likely first round guys, and a handful of intriguing mid round options. With that much talent at such a premium position, teams needing OLine help must be very happy.
The first prospect I want to look at is Charles Brown. He is one of my favourite prospects in the draft and I feel is most likely the most underrated prospect regadless of position within the draftnik community. If I was to tell you that there was a 6'5 305 lb LT, who comes from one of the best programs in the country, played in a pro style attack, just completed most likely the best college season of any OT in 2009, and is also probably the best natural pass protector in the draft you would think I'm talking about a top 10 pick. But for some reason Charles Brown has been pushed down draft boards until the end of round 1. Ridiculous. I don't think he's on the same level as Russell Okung or probably Bryan Bulaga, but thats because of Browns lack of power running ability. Lucky for Brown, left tackles aren't paid for their power run blocking, they're paid for their pass protection skills. Brown has those. Great feet, quick lateral movement, great use of hands... and he's also fantastic in certain run situations, likely those featured in a zone blocking scheme, such as sweeps and tosses. He also gets to the second level as good as any lineman in this draft. Brown is extremely similar to D'Brickashaw Ferguson the prospect but for some reason doesn't get the same level of respect. If a team needing a LT, such as Green Bay, Arizona, or Indianapolis gets him at the end of round 1, I think we'll be looking at a huge steal.
Moving on from my mancrush on Charles Brown, I want to look at easily the most overrated OT in the draft in Trent Williams. Williams had a pretty bad year for the Sooners at LT. His stock is mostly based on his fantastic athleticism and the potential he flashed as a junior on the right side. He also has some work ethic questions and his motor runs hot and cold at time. In other words this guy has bad tape on the left side, work ethic questions, but good tape on the right side and athleticism. I think hes worth a pick in late round 1/ early round 2, but Williams is talked about as a potential top 10 pick. I think that'd be a waste because I don't see him as an NFL starter at LT.
Shifting to another OT whos stock is based on pure potential, lets look at Bruce Campbell. He's got insane measurable's to go along with a kick-ass name. Those two things alone should get him drafted in round 1. He was the talk of the combine after blowing up pretty much every drill and running a 4.8 40 at 6'6 315. He's probably the freakiest athlete in the draft. So he's got elite measurables and all-world athleticism, we know that. What about his tape? Well thats where most people have questions with him. I think his tape is under rated personally. He shows he has the feet and quickness to be a blind side protector, and hes got the strength to be a beast at the point of attack. He does have some problems in space, is fairly raw in terms of technique, and is still relatively inexperienced. His upside more then makes up for it. Campbell has better athleticism and upside then Williams and his left side tape is actually on par with Williams' tape from 2009. Campbell is definitely a boom or bust type of prospect but I would have no problem gambling on him in the top half of round 1.
When all is said and done there may be 2 OT's go in the top 5 of the draft. Russell Okung and Bryan Bulaga. Okung isn't on the same level of Joe Thomas or Jake Long as prospects, but he is still the #1 guy in the draft. He's a very good run blocker with every trait you look for in a pass protector as well. He isn't as dominant as Thomas is as a passblocker and hes not the stud in the run game like Long... he's more of a 'jack of all trades but master of none' type of player. I think he is still worth a very high pick because he has a low bust probability as well as the potential to be the LT of a franchise for the next decade.
Bulaga is a guy who is a very good technician, who uses proper leverage, is very good in the run game, and ideal measurable's for the position (except his short arms). Bulaga is a relatively safe pick, because he's pretty much developed already and from his tape we know he possesses every trait that you look for in a starting tackle. He doesn't have the upside of the other guys but it's safe to say you could plug him in at a tackle spot and know what you're getting a solid starter. He's ranked ahead of guys like Brown and Campbell because hes so developed as a technician and hes solid across the board in every aspect.
Here are my rankings for the OT's... interior linemen are next.
1) Russell Okung, Oklahoma State (Top 5)
2) Bryan Bulaga, Iowa (Top 10)
3) Charles Brown, USC (Round 1)
4) Bruce Campbell, Maryland (Round 1)
5) Anthony Davis, Rutgers (Round 1)
6) Trent Williams, Oklahoma (Round 1)
7) Roger Saffold, Indiana (Round 2
8) Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale (Round 2)
9) Vladimir Ducasse, UMass (Round 2)
10) Jason Fox, Miami (Round 3-4)
The first prospect I want to look at is Charles Brown. He is one of my favourite prospects in the draft and I feel is most likely the most underrated prospect regadless of position within the draftnik community. If I was to tell you that there was a 6'5 305 lb LT, who comes from one of the best programs in the country, played in a pro style attack, just completed most likely the best college season of any OT in 2009, and is also probably the best natural pass protector in the draft you would think I'm talking about a top 10 pick. But for some reason Charles Brown has been pushed down draft boards until the end of round 1. Ridiculous. I don't think he's on the same level as Russell Okung or probably Bryan Bulaga, but thats because of Browns lack of power running ability. Lucky for Brown, left tackles aren't paid for their power run blocking, they're paid for their pass protection skills. Brown has those. Great feet, quick lateral movement, great use of hands... and he's also fantastic in certain run situations, likely those featured in a zone blocking scheme, such as sweeps and tosses. He also gets to the second level as good as any lineman in this draft. Brown is extremely similar to D'Brickashaw Ferguson the prospect but for some reason doesn't get the same level of respect. If a team needing a LT, such as Green Bay, Arizona, or Indianapolis gets him at the end of round 1, I think we'll be looking at a huge steal.
Moving on from my mancrush on Charles Brown, I want to look at easily the most overrated OT in the draft in Trent Williams. Williams had a pretty bad year for the Sooners at LT. His stock is mostly based on his fantastic athleticism and the potential he flashed as a junior on the right side. He also has some work ethic questions and his motor runs hot and cold at time. In other words this guy has bad tape on the left side, work ethic questions, but good tape on the right side and athleticism. I think hes worth a pick in late round 1/ early round 2, but Williams is talked about as a potential top 10 pick. I think that'd be a waste because I don't see him as an NFL starter at LT.
Shifting to another OT whos stock is based on pure potential, lets look at Bruce Campbell. He's got insane measurable's to go along with a kick-ass name. Those two things alone should get him drafted in round 1. He was the talk of the combine after blowing up pretty much every drill and running a 4.8 40 at 6'6 315. He's probably the freakiest athlete in the draft. So he's got elite measurables and all-world athleticism, we know that. What about his tape? Well thats where most people have questions with him. I think his tape is under rated personally. He shows he has the feet and quickness to be a blind side protector, and hes got the strength to be a beast at the point of attack. He does have some problems in space, is fairly raw in terms of technique, and is still relatively inexperienced. His upside more then makes up for it. Campbell has better athleticism and upside then Williams and his left side tape is actually on par with Williams' tape from 2009. Campbell is definitely a boom or bust type of prospect but I would have no problem gambling on him in the top half of round 1.
When all is said and done there may be 2 OT's go in the top 5 of the draft. Russell Okung and Bryan Bulaga. Okung isn't on the same level of Joe Thomas or Jake Long as prospects, but he is still the #1 guy in the draft. He's a very good run blocker with every trait you look for in a pass protector as well. He isn't as dominant as Thomas is as a passblocker and hes not the stud in the run game like Long... he's more of a 'jack of all trades but master of none' type of player. I think he is still worth a very high pick because he has a low bust probability as well as the potential to be the LT of a franchise for the next decade.
Bulaga is a guy who is a very good technician, who uses proper leverage, is very good in the run game, and ideal measurable's for the position (except his short arms). Bulaga is a relatively safe pick, because he's pretty much developed already and from his tape we know he possesses every trait that you look for in a starting tackle. He doesn't have the upside of the other guys but it's safe to say you could plug him in at a tackle spot and know what you're getting a solid starter. He's ranked ahead of guys like Brown and Campbell because hes so developed as a technician and hes solid across the board in every aspect.
Here are my rankings for the OT's... interior linemen are next.
1) Russell Okung, Oklahoma State (Top 5)
2) Bryan Bulaga, Iowa (Top 10)
3) Charles Brown, USC (Round 1)
4) Bruce Campbell, Maryland (Round 1)
5) Anthony Davis, Rutgers (Round 1)
6) Trent Williams, Oklahoma (Round 1)
7) Roger Saffold, Indiana (Round 2
8) Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale (Round 2)
9) Vladimir Ducasse, UMass (Round 2)
10) Jason Fox, Miami (Round 3-4)
Thursday, March 25, 2010
2010 Tight Ends
This years crop of TE's features only one 1st round prospect but a bunch of very interesting second tier guys. Much like the WR group, if your team is looking for a playmaker at TE in rounds 2 or 3 you may be in luck. Before we get to those second tier guys though we have to touch on Jermaine Gresham. Gresham unfortunately suffered a season ending ACL injury before the 2009 season even began, but he is still a solid 1st round pick. He has elite pass catching ability, superb size, deceiving speed, decent blocking, and great hands. He is basically the total package as a pass catcher and isn't a liability as a blocker. His only main knock is that nasty ACL injury he suffered... in fact without that injury, Gresham could have been a top 10 pick I feel. He's that good. Unfortunately that ACL tear is nasty and combine that with just a so-so combine performance will push Gresham to the bottom of the first round where he could be a steal.
After Gresham come some very interesting guys. Rob Gronkowski is probably #2 on most peoples boards. He offers great potential but like Gresham is coming off of a big time injury. After him there are a handful of guys you could order in any way. The most intriguing of this group is definitely Jimmy Graham of Miami. The former basketball player is extremely raw, wasn't that productive in college, and has major question marks in the blocking and route running department. What Graham has going for him is a huge frame (6'6, 260) combined with elite athleticism (4.56 40 time). Thats pretty freaky stuff. He has an insane vertical, big and soft hands, and his tape shows a great motor with non stop effort. Graham is a big time project but his potential is through the roof. We could see the one year football player with mediocre production end up going as high as round 2 based on his insane upside.
One other guy we need to take a look at is Aaron Hernandez. A good athlete with good speed, Hernandez is a projected passcatching TE out of Florida. He has good hands, good speed, and is great at locating the ball in the air. Sounds good right? Well he never ran the route tree coming out of Florida and combine that with his biggest weakness( a lack of blocking ability and effort) and you have a big time problem. He has the potential to be a great receiver but as an inline blocker he won't do much. For a system player with only one dimension to his game, he may be overrated. Some places will have him as the #3 TE off the board but I think that may be a reach.
Here are my top 10 TE's.... OT's are up next.
1) Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma (Round 1)
2) Rob Gronkowski, Arizona (Round 2)
3) Jimmy Graham, Miami (FL) (Round 2-3)
4) Dorrin Dickerson, Pittsburgh (Round 3)
5) Aaron Hernandez, Florida (Round 2-3)
6) Dennis Pitta, BYU (Round 3-4)
7) Ed Dickson, Oregon (Round 4-5)
8) Anthony McCoy, USC (Round 4-5)
9) Garret Graham, Wisconsin (Round 4-5)
10) Michael Hoomanawanui, Illinois (Rouind 5-6)
After Gresham come some very interesting guys. Rob Gronkowski is probably #2 on most peoples boards. He offers great potential but like Gresham is coming off of a big time injury. After him there are a handful of guys you could order in any way. The most intriguing of this group is definitely Jimmy Graham of Miami. The former basketball player is extremely raw, wasn't that productive in college, and has major question marks in the blocking and route running department. What Graham has going for him is a huge frame (6'6, 260) combined with elite athleticism (4.56 40 time). Thats pretty freaky stuff. He has an insane vertical, big and soft hands, and his tape shows a great motor with non stop effort. Graham is a big time project but his potential is through the roof. We could see the one year football player with mediocre production end up going as high as round 2 based on his insane upside.
One other guy we need to take a look at is Aaron Hernandez. A good athlete with good speed, Hernandez is a projected passcatching TE out of Florida. He has good hands, good speed, and is great at locating the ball in the air. Sounds good right? Well he never ran the route tree coming out of Florida and combine that with his biggest weakness( a lack of blocking ability and effort) and you have a big time problem. He has the potential to be a great receiver but as an inline blocker he won't do much. For a system player with only one dimension to his game, he may be overrated. Some places will have him as the #3 TE off the board but I think that may be a reach.
Here are my top 10 TE's.... OT's are up next.
1) Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma (Round 1)
2) Rob Gronkowski, Arizona (Round 2)
3) Jimmy Graham, Miami (FL) (Round 2-3)
4) Dorrin Dickerson, Pittsburgh (Round 3)
5) Aaron Hernandez, Florida (Round 2-3)
6) Dennis Pitta, BYU (Round 3-4)
7) Ed Dickson, Oregon (Round 4-5)
8) Anthony McCoy, USC (Round 4-5)
9) Garret Graham, Wisconsin (Round 4-5)
10) Michael Hoomanawanui, Illinois (Rouind 5-6)
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Terrance Murphy: Where is he now?
Remember Terrence Murphy? The Green Bay Packers grabbed him in the second round of the 2005 draft. He was a very talented WR from Texas A&M but unfortunately, almost as quickly as his promising career started it suddenly ended. He suffered a very serious neck injury and was told he could never play football again.
Well luckily, Murphy seems to have landed on his feet and is now a succesful Texas realtor. Check him out here!
Terrence Murphy 5: Realtor
Well luckily, Murphy seems to have landed on his feet and is now a succesful Texas realtor. Check him out here!
Terrence Murphy 5: Realtor
2010 Wide Receivers
When most are discussing this years Wide Reveiver group they usually begin the discussion with Dez Bryant who is the consensus #1 wide out in the draft. However I want to discuss Damian Williams. He is one of the most underrated guys in the entire draft regardless of position. A big, productive, and quick guy coming out of a pro style offense in USC, Williams is also probably the drafts best route-runner. Being a Trojan, we saw Williams' run all sorts of routes throughout his career. He ran slants, come-backs, curls, go's... pretty much the whole route tree. And he ran these routes to perfection. He is also a very elusive player in space. This can be seen be checking him out on special teams where he pitched in as a return man. Though he may never be the deep weapon that a player like Randy Moss is, Williams has #1 receiver potential. He runs every route extremely well, he's fantastic with the ball in his hands, and he has the Height/Weight/Speed to be an NFL starter. He'll likely be taken in round 2 but I think he's a steal at that spot.
I'm going to shift my attention from the most underrated WR in this draft class to the most overrated: Demaryius Thomas. I've never seen someone's stock shoot up in the pre draft process as much as Thomas' has without doing a thing. Thomas broke his foot so he was unable to work out. He also wasn't able to showcase his NFL potential at Georgia Tech since they run such an unorthodox offense that doesn't showcase an NFL route tree. Now, Thomas is a good prospect. He has excellent size at 6'3 and 225. On film he appears fast enough. He shows great leaping ability on film, great athleticism and the ability to locate deep balls in the air. In other words, this guy has big time potential but he's also a big time risk. I wouldn't entertain taking him until round 2 but some people are pegging him as as the #2 receiver in the draft. I'm not sure if I'd rank him higher then the #5 guy. He's very risky.
Another interesting guy in this years draft is Arrelious "Rejus" Benn from Illinois. Before the season started he was ranked just as highly as Dez Bryant but a disastrous 2009 season killed his stock. He only racked up 38 receptions, 480 yards, and 2 TD's last year... those numbers are alarming...and I'm not even a stat guy!
Benn wasn't given a very good QB to play with last season, as the Illinois QB situation was disastrous. That may be a big time reason for his decline in production so I'd be willing to give him a shot in round 2. He has a big body, he is very physical, and he has deceptive speed and burst. Like Thomas this guy has big time potential but is also a risk. Unlike Thomas we at least got to see him work out impress us with his athleticism.
This years group of receivers is fairly deep but lacks a lot of first round stars. If I was a team picking in round 2 or 3 looking for a wide out I'd be very excited because this group has a lot to offer.
Here are my rankings with projections in brackets. Next up will be Tight Ends.
1) Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (1st Round)
2) Golden Tate, Notre Dame (1st-2nd)
3) Damian Williams, USC (2nd-3rd)
4) Arrelious Benn, Illinois (2nd)
5) Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (1st-2nd)
6) Eric Decker, Minnesota (3rd-4th)
7) Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati (2nd-3rd)
8) Brandon LaFell, LSU (2nd-3rd)
9) Andre Roberts, Citadel (3rd-4th)
10) Carlton Mitchell, USF (3rd-4th)
I'm going to shift my attention from the most underrated WR in this draft class to the most overrated: Demaryius Thomas. I've never seen someone's stock shoot up in the pre draft process as much as Thomas' has without doing a thing. Thomas broke his foot so he was unable to work out. He also wasn't able to showcase his NFL potential at Georgia Tech since they run such an unorthodox offense that doesn't showcase an NFL route tree. Now, Thomas is a good prospect. He has excellent size at 6'3 and 225. On film he appears fast enough. He shows great leaping ability on film, great athleticism and the ability to locate deep balls in the air. In other words, this guy has big time potential but he's also a big time risk. I wouldn't entertain taking him until round 2 but some people are pegging him as as the #2 receiver in the draft. I'm not sure if I'd rank him higher then the #5 guy. He's very risky.
Another interesting guy in this years draft is Arrelious "Rejus" Benn from Illinois. Before the season started he was ranked just as highly as Dez Bryant but a disastrous 2009 season killed his stock. He only racked up 38 receptions, 480 yards, and 2 TD's last year... those numbers are alarming...and I'm not even a stat guy!
Benn wasn't given a very good QB to play with last season, as the Illinois QB situation was disastrous. That may be a big time reason for his decline in production so I'd be willing to give him a shot in round 2. He has a big body, he is very physical, and he has deceptive speed and burst. Like Thomas this guy has big time potential but is also a risk. Unlike Thomas we at least got to see him work out impress us with his athleticism.
This years group of receivers is fairly deep but lacks a lot of first round stars. If I was a team picking in round 2 or 3 looking for a wide out I'd be very excited because this group has a lot to offer.
Here are my rankings with projections in brackets. Next up will be Tight Ends.
1) Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (1st Round)
2) Golden Tate, Notre Dame (1st-2nd)
3) Damian Williams, USC (2nd-3rd)
4) Arrelious Benn, Illinois (2nd)
5) Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (1st-2nd)
6) Eric Decker, Minnesota (3rd-4th)
7) Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati (2nd-3rd)
8) Brandon LaFell, LSU (2nd-3rd)
9) Andre Roberts, Citadel (3rd-4th)
10) Carlton Mitchell, USF (3rd-4th)
First Word on Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow, the NFL prospect, is one of the most polarizing figures in draft history. Some people believe he could still be a top ten pick to Jacksonville while other think he is a day three prospect (Rounds 4 through 7). A lot could be said on Tebow the prospect. Right now I want to touch upon a recent story published by Pro Football Talk about Tebow at the Combine
Tim Tebow Article
Here's what the story says in a nutshell. Before the Wonderlic exam is issued, Tebow asks for a group prayer. One other player blurts out "Shut the F*ck Up" to Tebow. He is then met with laughter.
I want to know who that player is. Does he not know what type of place he will be working in next year? An NFL locker room is filled with very devout Chrisitians, many of whom are extremely vocal about their beliefs. Coaches such as Mike Singletary is an example. Past coach Tony Dungy is another obvious vocal Christian. Some players past and present off the top of my head that are very vocal and devout Chrisitans are Ray Lewis, Shaun Alexander, Deion Sanders, Kurt Warner, Reggie White, Will Blackmon, David Tyree, Ben Utecht, CJ Spiller from this draft, and on and on... The point is if the antagonizing player from this story says that type of stuff in an NFL locker room it won't be met with laughter.
There are prayer circles on the field before and after many NFL games, often coaches will lead his team in prayer before a game starts, and I think we've all seen players thanking God in post game interviews.
What has me confused is, judging by the comments on the Pro Football Talk comments section, people think it is Tebow who needs the reality check. It's the other guy. Asking for a prayer before a test may not be something everyone agrees with, but vocally slamming someone for it will not fly in the NFL. Whoever he is better learn that lesson quickly.
Tim Tebow Article
Here's what the story says in a nutshell. Before the Wonderlic exam is issued, Tebow asks for a group prayer. One other player blurts out "Shut the F*ck Up" to Tebow. He is then met with laughter.
I want to know who that player is. Does he not know what type of place he will be working in next year? An NFL locker room is filled with very devout Chrisitians, many of whom are extremely vocal about their beliefs. Coaches such as Mike Singletary is an example. Past coach Tony Dungy is another obvious vocal Christian. Some players past and present off the top of my head that are very vocal and devout Chrisitans are Ray Lewis, Shaun Alexander, Deion Sanders, Kurt Warner, Reggie White, Will Blackmon, David Tyree, Ben Utecht, CJ Spiller from this draft, and on and on... The point is if the antagonizing player from this story says that type of stuff in an NFL locker room it won't be met with laughter.
There are prayer circles on the field before and after many NFL games, often coaches will lead his team in prayer before a game starts, and I think we've all seen players thanking God in post game interviews.
What has me confused is, judging by the comments on the Pro Football Talk comments section, people think it is Tebow who needs the reality check. It's the other guy. Asking for a prayer before a test may not be something everyone agrees with, but vocally slamming someone for it will not fly in the NFL. Whoever he is better learn that lesson quickly.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
2010 Runningbacks
This years crop of running backs is a very exciting group. There is a wide variety of talented players, all with many different skill types. First and foremost there is the speedy homerun threat in CJ Spiller.... but he'll cost you a high first round pick. I think it's worth it. He has all the skills to be a Chris Johnson like player in the NFL. His vision, speed, and elusiveness all translate well to the NFL as an all purpose weapon. However, some people may be scared off at having to use a premium pick on a position that is relatively easy to fill. So if you're apprehensive about grabbing Spiller with an early pick, you could wait until round 2 and grab Jahvid Best. He possesses almost all of the same qualities Spiller does, but unlike CJ, Best has a pretty bad injury history and isn't considered to be very durable... for a position that demands a lot from your body, Best is a very risky pick.
Then there are the big bruisers. Ryan Mathews offers the complete package as a runner. Vision, instincts, size, speed, and balance. However in my opinion, he is somewhat overrated. He didn't play against the best competition, his blocking isn't the best, he doesn't break through many tackles, and he has many questions about his hands. He could strictly be a two down player.
Jonathon Dwyer is another over hyped back. Many draftniks like to throw his name around, but his stock isn't as high as many believe. He's fairly slow, has major conditioning and work ethic questions, and no one has ever seen him featured in a conventional offense. In other words he has some major issues and seems to be destined to round 3 or 4 at the earliest.
Instead of investing picks on the above players I would rather grab one of the following three guys: Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, or Montario Hardesty.
Gerhart is one of the most interesting players in this years draft. After finishing second in the Heisman voting Gerhart put all of his focus on training for the NFL. It showed after his impressive combine performance where he was weighed in at a very solid 231 and ran an impressive 4.55 40. He was exceptionally productive in college, had a great combine showing, and his tape shows an explosive bruiser with very good instincts. Despite this many people label him as a Fullback for whatever reason, and don't think his skill set will translate into the pros. I think his high profile name and underrated tape will get him drafted in round 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a starter sooner rather than later.
My favourite back in this Draft may be Ben Tate out of Auburn. He had a phenomenal year in the SEC, showing the ability to pound the rock up the middle in addition to being able to hit the edge and get into open space. He has some nice wiggle and has also shown the ability to be a reliable pass catcher. His biggest knocks were in what was perceiver as a lack of athleticism. He shattered this perception at the combine. In fact he was probably the most impressive back in Indy this year. He ran a 4.43 40, had the most bench reps out of all the running backs, second highest vertical, second longest broad jump, and the second best 20 yard shuttle. Not bad eh? Oh and did I mention he's 5'11 and 220lbs. In conclusion the guy has exceptional tape, great measurable's, superb athleticism, and a lot of upside. I would be very surprised if someone doesn't pick him up in round 2.
Montario Hardesty is another SEC back with big time potential. Despite being an experienced 5 year player at Tennessee, Hardesty barely has any mileage on his legs, which is an underrated quality in running back prospects. He has prototypical size and speed, and he combines that with a very intriguing skill set. He hits the hole hard and always keeps his legs moving on contact. Though you won't see him turn the corner or hit the edge often, he has a good burst and great agility and has the ability to break tackles. He is also a very good blocker and very reliable pass catcher. He has the potential to be an NFL starter very early in his career and projects similarly to Ryan Grant of the Packers as a runner.
Though in my rankings you will see Mathews rated higher then Gerhart, Tate, and Hardesty it is not by much. In fact, I would have no trouble listing those four players in pretty much any order jumbled up. Despite this, most experts are projecting Mathews as a first rounder where as the three guys I like are all projected to go rounds 2-4. If I'm a team like San Diego who is looking for a RB early, I'd prefer to grab Tate, Hardesty, or Gerhart later then invest a #1 on Mathews. In my opinion they are all on the same talent level and are all potential stars in the pros.
There are a lot more interesting names out there in this draft that I will go over in the future, but for now, here are my 2010 RB rankings with where I think they will be drafted in brackets. Next up receivers!
1) CJ Spiller, Clemson (Round 1)
2) Jahvid Best, Cal (Round 2)
3) Ryan Mathews, Fresno State (Round 1-2)
4) Ben Tate, Auburn (Round 2-3)
5) Toby Gerhart, Stanford (Round 2-3)
6) Montario Hardesty, Tennessee (Round 3-4)
7) Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss (Round 2-3)
8) Joe McKnight, USC (Round 3)
9) Jonathon Dwyer, Georgia Tech (Round 3-4)
10) Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State (Round 4)
Then there are the big bruisers. Ryan Mathews offers the complete package as a runner. Vision, instincts, size, speed, and balance. However in my opinion, he is somewhat overrated. He didn't play against the best competition, his blocking isn't the best, he doesn't break through many tackles, and he has many questions about his hands. He could strictly be a two down player.
Jonathon Dwyer is another over hyped back. Many draftniks like to throw his name around, but his stock isn't as high as many believe. He's fairly slow, has major conditioning and work ethic questions, and no one has ever seen him featured in a conventional offense. In other words he has some major issues and seems to be destined to round 3 or 4 at the earliest.
Instead of investing picks on the above players I would rather grab one of the following three guys: Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, or Montario Hardesty.
Gerhart is one of the most interesting players in this years draft. After finishing second in the Heisman voting Gerhart put all of his focus on training for the NFL. It showed after his impressive combine performance where he was weighed in at a very solid 231 and ran an impressive 4.55 40. He was exceptionally productive in college, had a great combine showing, and his tape shows an explosive bruiser with very good instincts. Despite this many people label him as a Fullback for whatever reason, and don't think his skill set will translate into the pros. I think his high profile name and underrated tape will get him drafted in round 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a starter sooner rather than later.
My favourite back in this Draft may be Ben Tate out of Auburn. He had a phenomenal year in the SEC, showing the ability to pound the rock up the middle in addition to being able to hit the edge and get into open space. He has some nice wiggle and has also shown the ability to be a reliable pass catcher. His biggest knocks were in what was perceiver as a lack of athleticism. He shattered this perception at the combine. In fact he was probably the most impressive back in Indy this year. He ran a 4.43 40, had the most bench reps out of all the running backs, second highest vertical, second longest broad jump, and the second best 20 yard shuttle. Not bad eh? Oh and did I mention he's 5'11 and 220lbs. In conclusion the guy has exceptional tape, great measurable's, superb athleticism, and a lot of upside. I would be very surprised if someone doesn't pick him up in round 2.
Montario Hardesty is another SEC back with big time potential. Despite being an experienced 5 year player at Tennessee, Hardesty barely has any mileage on his legs, which is an underrated quality in running back prospects. He has prototypical size and speed, and he combines that with a very intriguing skill set. He hits the hole hard and always keeps his legs moving on contact. Though you won't see him turn the corner or hit the edge often, he has a good burst and great agility and has the ability to break tackles. He is also a very good blocker and very reliable pass catcher. He has the potential to be an NFL starter very early in his career and projects similarly to Ryan Grant of the Packers as a runner.
Though in my rankings you will see Mathews rated higher then Gerhart, Tate, and Hardesty it is not by much. In fact, I would have no trouble listing those four players in pretty much any order jumbled up. Despite this, most experts are projecting Mathews as a first rounder where as the three guys I like are all projected to go rounds 2-4. If I'm a team like San Diego who is looking for a RB early, I'd prefer to grab Tate, Hardesty, or Gerhart later then invest a #1 on Mathews. In my opinion they are all on the same talent level and are all potential stars in the pros.
There are a lot more interesting names out there in this draft that I will go over in the future, but for now, here are my 2010 RB rankings with where I think they will be drafted in brackets. Next up receivers!
1) CJ Spiller, Clemson (Round 1)
2) Jahvid Best, Cal (Round 2)
3) Ryan Mathews, Fresno State (Round 1-2)
4) Ben Tate, Auburn (Round 2-3)
5) Toby Gerhart, Stanford (Round 2-3)
6) Montario Hardesty, Tennessee (Round 3-4)
7) Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss (Round 2-3)
8) Joe McKnight, USC (Round 3)
9) Jonathon Dwyer, Georgia Tech (Round 3-4)
10) Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State (Round 4)
Monday, March 22, 2010
2010 Quarterbacks
Flash back five years ago. The San Francisco 49ers are on the clock for the first selection of the 2005 NFL Draft. The selection is going to be a Quarterback. Some people argued that the QB's in the draft that year were not worthy of going #1, but the 49ers seemed determined to grab their signal caller of the future with that pick. So after much debate the selection came down to two people... two quarterbacks.... one 6'4 220 lb player who came from an unorthodox offense, operated mainly out of the shot-gun, had a fairly good arm, with great accuracy. He was known as the smartest QB in the draft and was though of as more of a safe pick then the other guy. That other guy was a little bit shorter and was criticized for leaving school early, perhaps only to capitalize on a great junior year. However, he had a great arm, operated under a pro style offense and had great success playing against top competition. Many still questioned him because of QB's that had come out of his school earlier had failed. Starting to sound familiar?...
The 49ers went with guy #1, and guy #2 slid into the 20's. Guy #1 is now considered one of the biggest all-time busts and guy #2 is one of the 5 best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Of course the two guys I'm talking about are Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers.
Why do I bring this up? Because not only is this years situation at the top of the draft eerily similar but you could almost interchange Smith's name with Bradford's and Rodgers' with Clausen's in the aforementioned scouting reports and no one would bat an eye.
Jimmy Clausen is an absolutely fantastic QB prospect. As mentioned before he draws favorable comparisons to Aaron Rodgers. You could also say he is similar to Matt Ryan, but with better decision making if you don't like the A-Rod comparison. Whoever you have him compared to, one must acknowledge that he is coming off of one of the best seasons of college football any junior QB has ever had. And this is with a pretty bad offensive line, a sub par running game, and playing with many of his weapons on the side-line.
In addition to all this, Clausen's accuracy is spot on, his arm is great, he takes care of the ball extremely well, he has shown improvement in a pro style offense in three straight years, he has a history of playing well in the 4th quarter, and he is physically everything you'd want from a QB.... in other words Jimmy Clausen has the makings of an NFL QB. He should be a top pick in this years draft.
Sam Bradford on the other hand is coming off some serious injuries. His arm isn't amazing (he's no Chad Pennington but you won't see him rifling lasers through the air either),he operated almost exclusively out of the shot gun, and many of his stat padding throws were quick one-read tosses that relied heavily on WR and TE play. The guy was also surrounded with a star studded offensive line. However, put some pressure on him, and what happens? Game #1 of this year, after his premier LT of 2008 is drafted, pressure gets to him...and hes hurt..... and hes out for the year. Clausen on the other hand had games where he was terrorized all game (USC anyone?!) and still put out great film without missing time.
All in all, there are a lot more question marks with Bradford as there is with Clausen, though public opinion seems to be the exact opposite. Why? Probably because of so called "character concerns". His character concerns are usually summarized with one main point: He's arrogant and cocky.
Well to me this isn't that bad. He seems like more Philip Rivers then Ryan Leaf. I want a QB with cockiness. As long as he is coachable and liked by his teammates than a little bit of cockiness is no problem. And by all accounts he seems to fit that criteria. He speaks very highly of Charlie Weis and clearly took to his coaching, as seen through his three straight years of improvement. He also apparently invited many of his Irish teammates to California the past offseason to get to know eachother better, work out, and practice their timing and route running. This doesn't seem like a bad teammate to me.
This is not a knock on Sam Bradford by any means. I did not intend to make Bradford out to be the next Alex Smith. He is a good prospect in his own right, but like Smith, he has many question marks. Regardless of my thoughts, Bradford seems destined at this point to go #1 overall. Despite this, I would not be surprised if Clausen ends up the better pro... just like Aaron Rodgers did.
Here are my QB rankings for 2010, with a projection of where they will actually go in brackets beside them.
1- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame (Top 10)
2- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (Top 5)
3- Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (Round 2)
4- Colt McCoy, QB, Texas (Round 3)
5- John Skelton, QB, Fordham (Round 4-5)
6- Jarrett Brown, QB, West Virginia (Round 3-4)
7- Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State (Round 4-5)
8- Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati (Round 3-4)
9- Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss (Round 4-5)
10- Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan (Round 4-5)
I will do a feature on other QB's (cough, cough, Tebow) after I do all of my initial positional rankings. Tomorrow will be RB's.
The 49ers went with guy #1, and guy #2 slid into the 20's. Guy #1 is now considered one of the biggest all-time busts and guy #2 is one of the 5 best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Of course the two guys I'm talking about are Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers.
Why do I bring this up? Because not only is this years situation at the top of the draft eerily similar but you could almost interchange Smith's name with Bradford's and Rodgers' with Clausen's in the aforementioned scouting reports and no one would bat an eye.
Jimmy Clausen is an absolutely fantastic QB prospect. As mentioned before he draws favorable comparisons to Aaron Rodgers. You could also say he is similar to Matt Ryan, but with better decision making if you don't like the A-Rod comparison. Whoever you have him compared to, one must acknowledge that he is coming off of one of the best seasons of college football any junior QB has ever had. And this is with a pretty bad offensive line, a sub par running game, and playing with many of his weapons on the side-line.
In addition to all this, Clausen's accuracy is spot on, his arm is great, he takes care of the ball extremely well, he has shown improvement in a pro style offense in three straight years, he has a history of playing well in the 4th quarter, and he is physically everything you'd want from a QB.... in other words Jimmy Clausen has the makings of an NFL QB. He should be a top pick in this years draft.
Sam Bradford on the other hand is coming off some serious injuries. His arm isn't amazing (he's no Chad Pennington but you won't see him rifling lasers through the air either),he operated almost exclusively out of the shot gun, and many of his stat padding throws were quick one-read tosses that relied heavily on WR and TE play. The guy was also surrounded with a star studded offensive line. However, put some pressure on him, and what happens? Game #1 of this year, after his premier LT of 2008 is drafted, pressure gets to him...and hes hurt..... and hes out for the year. Clausen on the other hand had games where he was terrorized all game (USC anyone?!) and still put out great film without missing time.
All in all, there are a lot more question marks with Bradford as there is with Clausen, though public opinion seems to be the exact opposite. Why? Probably because of so called "character concerns". His character concerns are usually summarized with one main point: He's arrogant and cocky.
Well to me this isn't that bad. He seems like more Philip Rivers then Ryan Leaf. I want a QB with cockiness. As long as he is coachable and liked by his teammates than a little bit of cockiness is no problem. And by all accounts he seems to fit that criteria. He speaks very highly of Charlie Weis and clearly took to his coaching, as seen through his three straight years of improvement. He also apparently invited many of his Irish teammates to California the past offseason to get to know eachother better, work out, and practice their timing and route running. This doesn't seem like a bad teammate to me.
This is not a knock on Sam Bradford by any means. I did not intend to make Bradford out to be the next Alex Smith. He is a good prospect in his own right, but like Smith, he has many question marks. Regardless of my thoughts, Bradford seems destined at this point to go #1 overall. Despite this, I would not be surprised if Clausen ends up the better pro... just like Aaron Rodgers did.
Here are my QB rankings for 2010, with a projection of where they will actually go in brackets beside them.
1- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame (Top 10)
2- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma (Top 5)
3- Tim Tebow, QB, Florida (Round 2)
4- Colt McCoy, QB, Texas (Round 3)
5- John Skelton, QB, Fordham (Round 4-5)
6- Jarrett Brown, QB, West Virginia (Round 3-4)
7- Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State (Round 4-5)
8- Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati (Round 3-4)
9- Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss (Round 4-5)
10- Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan (Round 4-5)
I will do a feature on other QB's (cough, cough, Tebow) after I do all of my initial positional rankings. Tomorrow will be RB's.
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